Selection leads to remarkable variability in the outcomes of hybridisation across replicate hybrid zones.

Hybrid zones have been viewed as an opportunity to see speciation in action. When hybrid zones are replicated, it is assumed that if the same genetic incompatibilities are maintaining reproductive isolation across all instances of secondary contact, those incompatibilities should be identifiable by consistent patterns in the genome. In contrast, changes in allele frequencies due to genetic drift should be idiosyncratic for each hybrid zone. To test this assumption, we simulated 20 replicates of each of 12 hybrid zone scenarios with varied genetic incompatibilities, rates of migration, selection and different starting population size ratios of parental species. We found remarkable variability in the outcomes of hybridisation in replicate hybrid zones, particularly with Bateson-Dobzhansky-Muller incompatibilities and strong selection. We found substantial differences among replicates in the overall genomic composition of individuals, including admixture proportions, inter-specific ancestry complement and number of ancestry junctions. Additionally, we found substantial variation in genomic clines among replicates at focal loci, regardless of locus-specific selection. We conclude that processes other than selection are responsible for some consistent outcomes of hybridisation, whereas selection on incompatibilities can lead to genomically widespread and highly variable outcomes. We highlight the challenge of mapping between pattern and process in hybrid zones and call attention to how selection against incompatibilities will commonly lead to variable outcomes. We hope that this study informs future research on replicate hybrid zones and encourages further development of statistical techniques, theoretical models and exploration of additional axes of variation to understand reproductive isolation.

Recommendations for quantitative uncertainty consideration in ecology and evolution.

Ecological and evolutionary studies are currently failing to achieve complete and consistent reporting of model-related uncertainty. We identify three key barriers - a focus on parameter-related uncertainty, obscure uncertainty metrics, and limited recognition of uncertainty propagation - which have led to gaps in uncertainty consideration. However, these gaps can be closed. We propose that uncertainty reporting in ecology and evolution can be improved through wider application of existing statistical solutions and by adopting good practice from other scientific fields. Our recommendations include greater consideration of input data and model structure uncertainties, field-specific uncertainty standards for methods and reporting, and increased uncertainty propagation through the use of hierarchical models.

A high-quality reference genome for the common creek chub, Semotilus atromaculatus.

Creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) is a leuciscid minnow species commonly found in anthropogenically disturbed environments, making it an excellent model organism to study human impacts on aquatic systems. Genomic resources for creek chub and other leuciscid species are currently limited. However, advancements in DNA sequencing now allow us to create genomic resources at a historically low cost. Here, we present a high quality, 239 contig reference genome for the common creek chub, created with PacBio HiFi sequencing. We compared the assembly quality of two pipelines: Pacific Biosciences' Improved Phase Assembly (873 contigs) and Hifiasm (239 contigs). Quality and completeness of this genome is comparable to the zebrafish (Danioninae) and fathead minnow (Leuciscidae) genomes. The creek chub genome is highly syntenic to the zebrafish and fathead minnow genomes, and while our assembly does not resolve into the expected 25 chromosomes, synteny with zebrafish suggests that each creek chub chromosome is likely represented by 1-4 large contigs in our assembly. This reference genome is a valuable resource that will enhance genomic biodiversity studies of creek chub and other nonmodel leuciscid species common to disturbed environments.

Parallel shifts in trout feeding morphology suggest rapid adaptation to alpine lake environments.

Eco-evolutionary interactions following ecosystem change provide critical insight into the ability of organisms to adapt to shifting resource landscapes. Here we explore evidence for the rapid parallel evolution of trout feeding morphology following eco-evolutionary interactions with zooplankton in alpine lakes stocked at different points in time in the Wind River Range (Wyoming, USA). In this system, trout predation has altered the zooplankton species community and driven a decrease in average zooplankton size. In some lakes that were stocked decades ago, we find shifts in gill raker traits consistent with the hypothesis that trout have rapidly adapted to exploit available smaller-bodied zooplankton more effectively. We explore this morphological response in multiple lake populations across two species of trout (cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarkii, and golden trout Oncorhynchus aguabonita) and examine the impact of resource availability on morphological variation in gill raker number among lakes. Furthermore, we present genetic data to provide evidence that historically stocked cutthroat trout populations likely derive from multiple population sources, and incorporate variation from genomic relatedness in our exploration of environmental predictors of feeding morphology. These findings describe rapid adaptation and eco-evolutionary interactions in trout and document an evolutionary response to novel, contemporary ecosystem change.

Diverse data sources and new statistical models offer prospects for improving the predictability of anthropogenic hybridization.

Human disturbance can theoretically influence the rates of hybridization, but few studies have convincingly identified a causal link. Grabenstein et al. (2022) used a genomic and phenotypic study of chickadees to associate hybridization with human disturbance. Additionally, this is consistent with citizen science reports of chickadee hybrids across the range. We highlight the exciting aspects of this work and make suggestions about a role for broad geographic and genomic sampling, and new statistical methods to better connect hybridization outcomes to anthropogenic disturbance in diverse study systems.

Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines.

Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can express how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world impacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the "sources of uncertainty" framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to-implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.

Ecological outcomes of hybridization vary extensively in Catostomus fishes.

Hybridization outcomes vary geographically and can depend on the environment. Hybridization can also reshape biotic interactions, leading to ecological shifts. If hybrids function differently ecologically in ways that enhance or reduce fitness, and those ecological roles vary geographically, ecological factors might explain variation in hybridization outcomes. However, relatively few studies have focused on ecological traits of hybrids. We compared the feeding ecology of Catostomus fish species and hybrids by using stable isotopes (δ13 C and δ15 N) as a proxy for diet and habitat use, and compared two native species, an introduced species, and three interspecific hybrid crosses. We included hybrids and parental species from seven rivers where hybridization outcomes vary. Relative isotopic niches of native species varied geographically, but native species did not fully overlap in isotopic space in any river sampled, suggesting little overlap of resource use between historically sympatric species. The introduced species overlapped with one or both native species in every river, suggesting similar resource use and potential competition. Hybrids occupied intermediate, matching, or more transgressive isotopic niches, and varied within and among rivers. Ecological outcomes of hybridization varied across locations, implying that hybridization might have unpredictable, idiosyncratic ecological effects.

Hybridization decreases native cutthroat trout reproductive fitness.

Examining natural selection in wild populations is challenging, but crucial to understanding many ecological and evolutionary processes. Additionally, in hybridizing populations, natural selection may be an important determinant of the eventual outcome of hybridization. We characterized several components of relative fitness in hybridizing populations of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and rainbow trout in an effort to better understand the prolonged persistence of both parental species despite predictions of extirpation. Thousands of genomic loci enabled precise quantification of hybrid status in adult and subsequent juvenile generations; a subset of those data also identified parent-offspring relationships. We used linear models and simulations to assess the effects of ancestry on reproductive output and mate choice decisions. We found a relatively low number of late-stage (F3+) hybrids and an excess of F2 juveniles relative to the adult generation in one location, which suggests the presence of hybrid breakdown decreasing the fitness of F2+ hybrids later in life. Assessments of reproductive output showed that Yellowstone cutthroat trout are more likely to successfully reproduce and produce slightly more offspring than their rainbow trout and hybrid counterparts. Mate choice appeared to be largely random, though we did find statistical support for slight female preference for males of similar ancestry. Together, these results show that native Yellowstone cutthroat trout are able to outperform rainbow trout in terms of reproduction and suggest that management action to exclude rainbow trout from spawning locations may bolster the now-rare Yellowstone cutthroat trout.

Limited evidence of a genetic basis for sex determination in the common creek chub, Semotilus atromaculatus.

Sexual reproduction is almost universal in vertebrates; therefore, each animal species which uses it must have a mechanism for designating sex as male or female. Fish, especially, have a wide range of sex determining systems. In the present study, we aimed to identify a genetic basis for sex determination in the common creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) using genotyping-by-sequencing data. No sex-associated markers were found by RADSex or a GWAS using GEMMA; however, Weir and Cockerham locus-specific FST analysis and discriminant analysis of principal components revealed genetic differentiation between the sexes at several loci. While no explicit sex determination mechanism has been yet discovered in creek chub, these loci are potential candidates for future studies. Incompatible systems are thought to increase reproductive isolation but interspecific hybridization is common among groups such as cyprinid minnows; thus, studies such as ours can provide insight into hybridization and evolutionary diversification of this clade. We also highlight technical challenges involved in studying sex determination in evolutionary groups with extremely variable mechanisms and without heteromorphic sex chromosomes.

Investigating the morphological and genetic divergence of arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) populations in lakes of arctic Alaska.

Polymorphism facilitates coexistence of divergent morphs (e.g., phenotypes) of the same species by minimizing intraspecific competition, especially when resources are limiting. Arctic char (Salvelinus sp.) are a Holarctic fish often forming morphologically, and sometimes genetically, divergent morphs. In this study, we assessed the morphological and genetic diversity and divergence of 263 individuals from seven populations of arctic char with varying length-frequency distributions across two distinct groups of lakes in northern Alaska. Despite close geographic proximity, each lake group occurs on landscapes with different glacial ages and surface water connectivity, and thus was likely colonized by fishes at different times. Across lakes, a continuum of physical (e.g., lake area, maximum depth) and biological characteristics (e.g., primary productivity, fish density) exists, likely contributing to characteristics of present-day char populations. Although some lakes exhibit bimodal size distributions, using model-based clustering of morphometric traits corrected for allometry, we did not detect morphological differences within and across char populations. Genomic analyses using 15,934 SNPs obtained from genotyping by sequencing demonstrated differences among lake groups related to historical biogeography, but within lake groups and within individual lakes, genetic differentiation was not related to total body length. We used PERMANOVA to identify environmental and biological factors related to observed char size structure. Significant predictors included water transparency (i.e., a primary productivity proxy), char density (fish·ha-1), and lake group. Larger char occurred in lakes with greater primary production and lower char densities, suggesting less intraspecific competition and resource limitation. Thus, char populations in more productive and connected lakes may prove more stable to environmental changes, relative to food-limited and closed lakes, if lake productivity increases concomitantly. Our findings provide some of the first descriptions of genomic characteristics of char populations in arctic Alaska, and offer important consideration for the persistence of these populations for subsistence and conservation.

Model-based genotype and ancestry estimation for potential hybrids with mixed-ploidy.

Non-random mating among individuals can lead to spatial clustering of genetically similar individuals and population stratification. This deviation from panmixia is commonly observed in natural populations. Consequently, individuals can have parentage in single populations or involving hybridization between differentiated populations. Accounting for this mixture and structure is important when mapping the genetics of traits and learning about the formative evolutionary processes that shape genetic variation among individuals and populations. Stratified genetic relatedness among individuals is commonly quantified using estimates of ancestry that are derived from a statistical model. Development of these models for polyploid and mixed-ploidy individuals and populations has lagged behind those for diploids. Here, we extend and test a hierarchical Bayesian model, called entropy, which can use low-depth sequence data to estimate genotype and ancestry parameters in autopolyploid and mixed-ploidy individuals (including sex chromosomes and autosomes within individuals). Our analysis of simulated data illustrated the trade-off between sequencing depth and genome coverage and found lower error associated with low-depth sequencing across a larger fraction of the genome than with high-depth sequencing across a smaller fraction of the genome. The model has high accuracy and sensitivity as verified with simulated data and through analysis of admixture among populations of diploid and tetraploid Arabidopsis arenosa.

Variable hybridization outcomes in trout are predicted by historical fish stocking and environmental context.

Hybridization can profoundly affect the genomic composition and phenotypes of closely related species, and provides an opportunity to identify mechanisms that maintain reproductive isolation between species. Recent evidence suggests that hybridization outcomes within a species pair can vary across locations. However, we still do not know how variable outcomes of hybridization are across geographic replicates, and what mechanisms drive that variation. In this study, we described hybridization outcomes across 27 locations in the North Fork Shoshone River basin (Wyoming, USA) where native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and introduced rainbow trout co-occur. We used genomic data and hierarchical Bayesian models to precisely identify ancestry of hybrid individuals. Hybridization outcomes varied across locations. In some locations, only rainbow trout and advanced backcrossed hybrids towards rainbow trout were present, while trout in other locations had a broader range of ancestry, including both parental species and first-generation hybrids. Later-generation intermediate hybrids were rare relative to backcrossed hybrids and rainbow trout individuals. Using an individual-based simulation, we found that outcomes of hybridization in the North Fork Shoshone River basin deviate substantially from what we would expect under null expectations of random mating and no selection against hybrids. Since this deviation implies that some mechanisms of reproductive isolation function to maintain parental taxa and a diversity of hybrid types, we then modelled hybridization outcomes as a function of environmental variables and stocking history that are likely to affect prezygotic barriers to hybridization. Variables associated with history of fish stocking were the strongest predictors of hybridization outcomes, followed by environmental variables that might affect overlap in spawning time and location.

Inconsistent reproductive isolation revealed by interactions between Catostomus fish species.

Interactions between species are central to evolution and ecology, but we do not know enough about how outcomes of interactions between species vary across geographic locations, in heterogeneous environments, or over time. Ecological dimensions of interactions between species are known to vary, but evolutionary interactions such as the establishment and maintenance of reproductive isolation are often assumed to be consistent across instances of an interaction between species. Hybridization among Catostomus fish species occurs over a large and heterogeneous geographic area and across taxa with distinct evolutionary histories, which allows us to assess consistency in species interactions. We analyzed hybridization among six Catostomus species across the Upper Colorado River basin (US mountain west) and found extreme variation in hybridization across locations. Different hybrid crosses were present in different locations, despite similar species assemblages. Within hybrid crosses, hybridization varied from only first generation hybrids to extensive hybridization with backcrossing. Variation in hybridization outcomes might result from uneven fitness of hybrids across locations, polymorphism in genetic incompatibilities, chance, unidentified historical contingencies, or some combination thereof. Our results suggest caution in assuming that one or a few instances of hybridization represent all interactions between the focal species, as species interactions vary substantially across locations.

Highly variable reproductive isolation among pairs of Catostomus species.

Hybridization between diverged taxa tests the strength of reproductive isolation and can therefore reveal mechanisms of reproductive isolation. However, it remains unclear how consistent reproductive isolation is across species' ranges and to what extent reproductive isolation might remain polymorphic as species diverge. To address these questions, we compared outcomes of hybridization across species pairs of Catostomus fishes in three rivers in the Upper Colorado River basin, where an introduced species, C. commersoni, hybridizes with at least two native species, C. discobolus and C. latipinnis. We observed substantial heterogeneity in outcomes of hybridization, both between species pairs and across geographically separate rivers within each species pair. We also observed hybridization of additional related species with our focal species, suggesting that reproductive isolation in this group involves interactions of multiple evolutionary and ecological factors. These findings suggest that a better understanding of the determinants of variation in reproductive isolation is needed and that studies of reproductive isolation in hybrids should consider how the dynamics and mechanisms of reproductive isolation vary over ecological space and over evolutionary time. Our results also have implications for the conservation and management of native catostomids in the Colorado River basin. Heterogeneity in outcomes of hybridization suggests that the threat posed by hybridization and genetic introgression to the persistence of native species probably varies with extent of reproductive isolation, both across rivers and across species pairs.

Plasma homocysteine is elevated in COPD patients and is related to COPD severity.

BACKGROUND: Although recent studies have found that total plasma homocysteine (tHCY) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are both risk factors for cardiac disease, there have been few studies of plasma homocysteine levels in COPD patients. We tested the hypothesis that total plasma homocysteine (tHCY) would be elevated in patients diagnosed with COPD compared with controls. METHODS: We studied 29 COPD outpatients and 25 asymptomatic subjects (controls) over age 55 years with measurement of forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), St. Georges Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score, tHCY and serum C-reactive protein (sCRP). RESULTS: There was no difference between controls vs. COPD patients in mean age or gender but mean (SD) FEV1 was 2.25 (0.77) vs. 1.43 (0.60) L; FEV1 per cent predicted 76.1 (17.2) vs. 49.1 (16.3) p < 0.001 in both cases. Median (IQR) tHCY was 8.22 (6.63, 9.55) in controls vs. 10.96 (7.56, 13.60) micromol/l for COPD, p = 0.006 and sCRP 0.89 (0.47, 2.55) vs. 2.05 (0.86, 6.19) mg/l, p = 0.023. tHCY(log) was also higher in (r, p) smokers (0.448, 0.001), patients with low FEV1 per cent (-0.397, 0.003), males (0.475, < 0.001), but high SGRQ Total score (0.289, 0.034), and high sCRP (0.316, 0.038). tHCY(log) was independently related to (regression coefficient, p) sCRP(log) (0.087, 0.024), male gender (0.345, < 0.001) and presence of COPD (0.194, 0.031). Median (IQR) tHCY GOLD Stage I and II 8.05 (7.28, 11.04), GOLD Stage III and IV: 11.83 (9.30, 18.30); p = 0.023. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma homocysteine is significantly elevated in COPD patients relative to age and sex-matched controls and is related to serum CRP and COPD severity.

Plasma homocysteine is elevated in COPD patients and is related to COPD severity.

BACKGROUND: Although recent studies have found that total plasma homocysteine (tHCY) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are both risk factors for cardiac disease, there have been few studies of plasma homocysteine levels in COPD patients. We tested the hypothesis that total plasma homocysteine (tHCY) would be elevated in patients diagnosed with COPD compared with controls. METHODS: We studied 29 COPD outpatients and 25 asymptomatic subjects (controls) over age 55 years with measurement of forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), St. Georges Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score, tHCY and serum C-reactive protein (sCRP). RESULTS: There was no difference between controls vs. COPD patients in mean age or gender but mean (SD) FEV1 was 2.25 (0.77) vs. 1.43 (0.60) L; FEV1% predicted 76.1 (17.2) vs. 49.1 (16.3) p < 0.001 in both cases. Median (IQR) tHCY was 8.22 (6.63, 9.55) in controls vs. 10.96 (7.56, 13.60) micromol/l for COPD, p = 0.006 and sCRP 0.89 (0.47, 2.55) vs. 2.05 (0.86, 6.19) mg/l, p = 0.023. tHCY(log) was also higher in (r, p) smokers (0.448, 0.001), patients with low FEV1% (-0.397, 0.003), males (0.475, < 0.001), but high SGRQ Total score (0.289, 0.034), and high sCRP (0.316, 0.038). tHCY(log) was independently related to (regression coefficient, p) sCRP(log) (0.087, 0.024), male gender (0.345, < 0.001) and presence of COPD (0.194, 0.031). Median (IQR) tHCY GOLD Stage I and II 8.05 (7.28, 11.04), GOLD Stage III and IV: 11.83 (9.30, 18.30); p = 0.023. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma homocysteine is significantly elevated in COPD patients relative to age and sex-matched controls and is related to serum CRP and COPD severity.